Bitcoin’s bear market could continue until September or October if the cryptocurrency follows the timing of its previous four-year cycles, according to a new analysis from Grayscale.
The asset manager said Bitcoin has historically reached a major low approximately 12 months after forming a cycle peak. BTC reached its latest record above $124,000 in October 2025, meaning a comparable timetable would place the next potential bottom around September or October 2026.
Bitcoin is currently trading near $65,500, almost 48% below its record. The cryptocurrency has recovered from a late-June decline below $60,000, but repeated rallies have struggled to establish a lasting break above the high-$60,000 range.
Grayscale stressed that the September–October window is a scenario based on historical patterns rather than a firm price forecast. The central question is whether Bitcoin still behaves like a halving-driven cyclical asset or has become more closely tied to global liquidity, interest rates and institutional portfolio decisions.
Historical Cycle Points to More Weakness
Bitcoin’s previous bear markets generally lasted about one year from peak to trough. The market topped in late 2013 before reaching its low in January 2015, peaked in December 2017 before bottoming in December 2018, and reached a record in November 2021 before falling to its next cycle low in November 2022.
Applying that pattern to the October 2025 high suggests that the current downturn may still have several months to run.
Other indicators also imply that a definitive bottom has not been confirmed. Earlier research from Galaxy Digital found that only four of 13 historical bottoming signals had been triggered by June. Bitcoin remained above the network’s aggregate cost basis, while the sustained loss-taking and deep holder capitulation associated with previous lows had not yet occurred.
Galaxy estimated that a historically comparable but less severe cycle bottom could fall between $40,000 and $46,000. Grayscale has not attached a specific downside target to its latest timing scenario.
Institutional Demand Could Break the Pattern
The alternative view is that Bitcoin’s traditional four-year cycle has become less reliable. Spot exchange-traded funds, corporate treasury buyers and regulated institutional products have created sources of demand that did not exist during earlier downturns.
Bitcoin has also increasingly traded like a macro-sensitive risk asset. Interest-rate expectations, dollar liquidity, technology-stock performance and demand for alternative stores of value may now influence prices more than the scheduled halving alone.
Grayscale previously predicted that growing institutional adoption could weaken or even end the traditional cycle framework. The firm’s latest analysis does not abandon that argument, but acknowledges that Bitcoin’s price action since its October peak resembles the early stages of earlier bear markets.
A sustained recovery would require stronger ETF inflows, improving liquidity and a decisive move through major resistance around $68,000 to $70,000. Failure to hold the $60,000 region would strengthen the case for a later and potentially lower bottom.
The September–October forecast should therefore be viewed as a risk window rather than a fixed deadline. Bitcoin may recover sooner if institutional demand accelerates, but investors relying on historical cycles should be prepared for the bear market to persist into the fourth quarter.
